China's Wine Market Recalibration

Josh Gu has watched China's wine scene evolve for over two decades. As Project Director of ProWine Shanghai and Hong Kong, he sees opportunity where others see uncertainty.

The numbers tell one story about China’s wine market, with softer corporate spending, shifting consumption patterns and traditional channels under pressure. Josh Gu, who has shepherded ProWine Shanghai since its 2013 launch, tells another. After two decades watching the market’s evolution, he sees a fundamental recalibration rather than decline, with new opportunities emerging for producers willing to adapt.

The Great Transition

“We’re in a meaningful transition period,” Gu explains. “While traditional business-banquet and gifting occasions have softened, new opportunities are emerging. More young consumers are integrating wine into daily life and home occasions continue to rise.”

This shift signals an evolution in how Chinese consumers relate to wine. The formal banquet culture that dominated for decades is giving way to something more personal, more integrated into everyday life. For international producers, this transition demands a recalibrated approach.
The trends Gu observes reflect this new reality: easy-drinking styles gaining traction, packaging and format innovations becoming crucial, and diverse portfolios outperforming traditional red-wine-focused offerings. “Beyond red, white and sparkling styles, sweeter profiles and low or no-alcohol options are growing fast,” he notes. “Younger consumers are also more open to new and emerging regions, not just traditional origins.”

The White Wine Opportunity

If there is one category Gu advocates for above others, it is white wine. “White wine should be a priority for all producers, especially Riesling and Sauvignon Blanc,” he states with conviction.

This recommendation reflects broader consumption patterns. As wine moves from ceremonial to casual occasions, styles that pair with lighter cuisine and offer approachability become more valuable. Add to this the growth in low- and no-alcohol offerings - which “welcome consumers who previously did not drink alcohol” - and a picture emerges of a market expanding its boundaries rather than contracting.

Beyond the Showcase

Much like its audience, ProWine Shanghai has evolved too. “It is more than a showcase,” Gu emphasises. “We connect international producers with Chinese trade buyers and deliver forums and masterclasses that share knowledge and foster exchange.”
The show’s visitor profile reflects China’s diversifying wine landscape. Traditional importers and distributors still attend, but they are joined by representatives from new retail and digital channels - Meituan, Douyin, Sam’s Club and ALDI. Notably, over half of visitors (53.02%) travel from outside Shanghai, underscoring the fair’s nationwide reach and its ability to attract high-quality regional buyers.

The Barbell Market

Gu describes China’s current wine market as following a “barbell pattern” - strong demand at the high end for established icons and, simultaneously, for value-driven everyday wines. This bifurcation creates opportunities for producers who can position clearly rather than getting caught in the squeezed middle.

His advice for first-time exhibitors reflects this reality: match your range to current demand, come prepared to highlight white wines and credible low-alcohol options, and conduct targeted pre-show outreach. “Many regional buyers run tight schedules in Shanghai; contacting them in advance dramatically increases the chances your stand makes their itinerary.”

The Long View

When asked why producers should consider China despite current uncertainties, Gu’s response is unequivocal: “Confidence in China’s potential. Despite global headwinds, the Chinese market retains the capacity to become the world’s largest single wine market over time.”

The market infrastructure is changing too. “While some traditional importers have exited, a new wave of buyers is investing for the long term,” he observes. These are not opportunistic players but committed, forward-looking partners building for the future.

For international producers navigating an increasingly complex global marketplace, China represents both challenge and opportunity. The market requires adaptation - lighter styles, flexible formats, clear positioning. But for those willing to engage thoughtfully with these new realities, Gu suggests the rewards justify the effort.

“ProWine Shanghai is the most efficient way to meet those committed, forward-looking partners, face to face, across the entire value chain,” he concludes. In an industry built on relationships and personal connections, that face-to-face element may prove more valuable than any market data ever could.

ProWine Shanghai takes place 12–14 November 2025 at the Shanghai New International Expo Center (SNIEC).